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Author Topic: Corono...Testing....1 2 3  (Read 252 times)

Offline allagash

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Corono...Testing....1 2 3
« on: March 12, 2020, 05:59:55 pm »
who's still out there....

fdjake?

rookienyc?

bluemoon?

-Mike

Offline NJbird_dog

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Re: Corono...Testing....1 2 3
« Reply #1 on: March 19, 2020, 08:00:45 am »
Would be amazing to have this group back and chatting.
I'm visiting after 10 years. Lots have changed in my life. Went from a bird dog putting up bandit signs to just signing a my first $6M development partnership deal. It's all on hold now because I think this time around is unprecedented. But I remember fdjake's posts teasing us about how people say that during every time. 'This time it's different' etc etc. 

fdjake, rookieNYC, and the others..  if you guys are reading this, I hope you realize the value and service you all brought through your posts and I would love to reconnect!

Offline fdjake

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Re: Corono...Testing....1 2 3
« Reply #2 on: March 22, 2020, 10:29:48 am »
I'm here.  Looking at some incredible opportunities that are presenting themselves.

Here's my thoughts.

This is going to get FAR WORSE.  This virus is a LUNG EATER.  People are blowing it off.  Americans, unfortunately, are dopes.  They don't save, don't plan. don't listen.  They are not going to fully appreciate how bad this virus is until they get it.  Here's my standard question I ask everyone I know regarding the corona virus.

1) Do you currently, personally know anyone with the corona virus?   Most of the people I talk to answer NO.

2) Within a month YOU will know someone personally who has this virus or YOU will have it!!

The money being thrown at this by our politicians won't do much to stop the crash that is really coming in stocks.
The market has been built on bullsh*t for 10 years.  Low interest rates allowed companies to borrow at artificially low rates, buy back their stock, push the price up and let top executives collect massive bonuses and option awards.  Now the sh*t has hit the fan, company balance sheets are saddled with massive debt and the stock price is in the toilet.  And we now have NOTHING...No work force, no economy...NOTHING until this virus is over.

But.......

There are INSANE bargains out there that could get even cheaper as this virus plays out. 

A few weeks of free money is not going to stop what's unfolding here.  Idiot Americans will buy Xboxes, Flatscreeens, New Iphones.  These checks aren't going to people like US...They're going to the people in this country who can't put their hands on $400 in an emergency.  Which is 40% of our population.
Good luck to all the "look at Me" nit wits out there making $150K/year but still don't have $2000 in the bank because they have a Range Rover payment at $1000/month and a $450,000 mortgage.  GOOD LUCK DUMMY!!!  Hope the Range Rover is comfortable because you'll be LIVING IN IT SOON!!!

"Hell is Coming."

But.....For those of us who live within our means, save, invest.  PAY ATTENTION!!!!  Generational investing opportunities are about to appear almost every where.

Stay tuned.    I'll be back..............
« Last Edit: March 22, 2020, 10:34:09 am by fdjake »

Offline heartlandbuyshouses

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Re: Corono...Testing....1 2 3
« Reply #3 on: March 22, 2020, 09:43:47 pm »
We must take this virus seriously. Look what happened to Italy. Military trucks loaded of dead corpse searching a land to bury. Very horrifying.
Don Wede
Heartland Funding Inc.
www.heartlandbuyshouses.com

Offline allagash

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Re: Corono...Testing....1 2 3
« Reply #4 on: March 24, 2020, 08:19:06 am »
Lung Eater?!

Best description I've heard.

With a history of chronic bronchitis...it's got me holded up pretty good.

Even isolating with my son....at a vacant rental...as my wife just returned from out of country.

Started using instacart this week.

Bout it for now.

Stay safe.

-Mike

Offline NJbird_dog

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Re: Corono...Testing....1 2 3
« Reply #5 on: March 24, 2020, 06:50:24 pm »
I'm here.  Looking at some incredible opportunities that are presenting themselves.

But.....For those of us who live within our means, save, invest.  PAY ATTENTION!!!!  Generational investing opportunities are about to appear almost every where.

Stay tuned.    I'll be back..............

Glad you're around!  :beer

I was tempted to buy stocks last week after the immediate drops but I held back knowing things will get worse in a few weeks. But I missed out on some amazing quick gains during today's rally.

Generational wealth is the goal! I've been saving, living FAR below my means, and I actually just recently partnered the majority of my funds into a multi-unit development deal. I'm tempting to cancel and preserve my funds for this crash but the development deal itself is generational wealth. So I'll have to make do with the cash reserves that I have remaining.

So.. the real estate market will take time to absorb this hit. In the short term, there's the immediate slow down in transactions, people holding off on buying a home, continuing to rent, and hoping they don't lose their jobs. In the long term, at least 2-3 years from now, that's when I think we'll see the foreclosures/price reductions/etc start to take off if the job losses are as severe as expected.

After going through the 2008 recession, I want to do more this time around. More than just look for discounted rentals, short sales, etc. I'm actually tired of dealing with all of that and want to move onto bigger deals!

I'll be spending much more time this time around on stocks, businesses (senior housing facilities), and exploring all avenues of creating generational wealth.

Good luck to everyone, looking forward to some great discussions!





Offline rookieNYC

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Re: Corono...Testing....1 2 3
« Reply #6 on: March 26, 2020, 06:23:24 am »
So we reconvene under interesting circumstances. Ty for reaching out .  Hello to my friends Fdjake,Mdhaas,NJ Bird Dog,allagash and others .

Nj Bird Dog congratulations on moving up in the scale of your deals, good stuff .

My feelings about the current environment. It all happened at blinding speed while I agree and disagree with Fdjake ( no surprise old friend ) I do feel that having dry powder is the most coveted asset for this time. I also agree that the economy will get worse before it gets better . Where I disagree is this virus will get worse, look at China,Italy and numerous other countries. They have moved past the worst phase of this pandemic, and it seems they may be heading out of the woods.  But this is yet to be seen. What really interests me is why Mexico has practically zero cases ?.

As most of you know I started out over 12 years ago lending my own personal capital that blossomed into a large business. But yes that doesn't come without playing with the larger firms who are quite apprehensive at this time. This in itself makes for the opportunity that I have waited for. This all reminds me of 2008-2009 in FL. My point is that lenders with dry powder are selling water in the desert. The days of brokers browbeating me for competitive pricing , ridiculous terms, high LTV's are over. In the last 5 days I have sent out 4 terms sheets of *my terms* , take it or leave it. I have been disgusted at the race to the bottom pricing that has plagued the bridge lending industry. I railed against the fix and flip lenders with ridiculous loan terms, I never joined in these deals and may have missed some upside over the years but many of the buyers of this paper are on the ropes. Toorak, Alphaflow, Roc Capital, Peer Street all on pause and reevaluating their flat out ridiculous business model. . All the while I focused on income-producing properties. I gravitated away from SFH after I thankfully made it out of FL successfully . I never lent on superluxury,non liquid markets,anything rural,no land . I lived by this creed for my entire career and I feel even more strongly now. My loan sizes have increased at my fund over the years $2mm-$30mm, but my personal deal size always stayed under $1.5mm. I love a simple mixed use property in Queens at 50-60% LTV 12% + 2 points, hardlock box, throw it on my warehouse line to get leverage and make a 20% yield. I have done this hundreds of times over my career and it still excites me to this day. Even more, after watching the stock market black swan event.

Interestingly enough I don't see a large decline coming for SFH, the market is pretty strong in my neck of the woods. For me personally what I learn time and time again is just stay in my lane . I was not impervious to the stock market decline but it touched only 7% of my portfolio, as I'm not invested in stocks. I never have been, truthfully speaking it was my wifes' 401k that was hit . I personally own zero stock. I have been a CRE Debt guy from the day I came in this business and feel even more strongly now.

Anyone looking to enter the stock market I would say this . Consider it all risk capital, I never liked the market and still don't . Simply because I dont have control like I do in the debt markets. I understand my downside with originating debt. I'm an expert in probability and I feel very comfortable with that risk. After spending the better part of a decade in a deep work intensely focused mode on just origination.

I see such a gap in the market I'm forming a small balance income-producing bridge fund seeded with my own capital , Tri State area only . No better real estate market in the world. It will be this way for a long time. Certain areas of the debt market are never coming back while others will in time.

Great to see everyone is still around and doing well. We are blessed for that and sincerely hope your families are well.
« Last Edit: March 26, 2020, 06:55:34 am by rookieNYC »

Offline allagash

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Re: Corono...Testing....1 2 3
« Reply #7 on: March 26, 2020, 08:32:24 am »
...NYC

Great to hear from you!

Will repost when time permits.

-Mike

Offline John_in_NC

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Re: Corono...Testing....1 2 3
« Reply #8 on: March 26, 2020, 04:20:11 pm »
So awesome to see everyone back! Well, almost everyone.

Anyone shorting the market right now? SQQQ? Seems like a no brainier but I know only enough about the stock market to get myself into trouble.

My local RE market is still very hot with homes selling within a few days on the market. Surely this can't continue. Just looking for a way to build up more some cash while I wait for better RE market conditions.

Offline Mdhaas

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Re: Corono...Testing....1 2 3
« Reply #9 on: March 26, 2020, 07:38:46 pm »
Welcome back NYC!  :beer
If at first you don't succeed.....................skydiving is not for you

Offline allagash

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Re: Corono...Testing....1 2 3
« Reply #10 on: March 27, 2020, 02:14:05 pm »
"Do you currently, personally know anyone who has the Corona virus?...Within a month..."

That didn't take long ..

Friend in my city just contracted it.

Personally...I'll be taking Bill Gates analysis into consideration...and self isolating till something like end of May... even that's a crap shoot....with an underlying condition.

No singing Kumbaya with Trump on Easter Sunday.

Rookie... Mexico is getting hit.  My wife just returned from Monterrey on Saturday.  The largest cluster in that city is in an affluent area called San Pedro.  I wouldn't be surprised if the contraction there started from someone traveling to South Korea...as Kia Motors has a large presence in MTY.  But they're, (Mexico), lucky.  They've been given much more lead time vs places like NYC which had all that influx of international air traffic.

'Bout it for now... not used to working from just a smartphone.

-Mike
« Last Edit: March 28, 2020, 06:23:37 am by allagash »

 




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